摘要：Global lubricant demand will grow at less than 2 percent per year to reach 42.1 million metric tons by 2017, consultancy Kline & Co. projects, from 38.7 million tons in 2012...
Global lubricant demand will grow at less than 2 percent per year to reach 42.1 million metric tons by 2017, consultancy Kline & Co. projects, from 38.7 million tons in 2012.
George Morvey, industry manager for Kline’s Energy Practice, noted that more than half of the world’s lubricants in 2012 came from just 10 companies. Shell yielded a bit of ground yet remained the global market share leader, at 12 percent of lubricants supply, followed by ExxonMobil at 10 percent, BP at 7 percent, and Chevron and Total with 5 percent each. Filling out the Top 10 are PetroChina at 4 percent, Sinopec with 3 percent, and Japan’s Idemitsu, Russia’s Lukoil and Germany’s Fuchs Petrolub at 2 percent each. This marks the first time that Fuchs has landed on Kline’s list of the world’s Top 10 lubricant sup- pliers.
According to Kline’s latest study and forecast, “Global Lubricants Industry: Market Analysis and Assessment,” lubri- cants demand will grow annually from 2012 to 2017 by 2.7 percent in Asia- Pacific, by 2.4 percent in South America, and 1.4 percent in Africa and the Middle East. Virtually stagnant growth rates are expected for Europe (0.6 percent a year) and North America (just 0.4 percent annual growth).
By region, Asia-Pacific led the market in 2012 with 43 percent of finished lubricants consumption. North America was next with 25 percent, and Europe with 17 percent. The remain- der included Africa and the Middle East together at 8 percent, and South America with 7 percent.
Drilling down to individual countries, the United States remained the leader with just under 22 percent of the global market. “The U.S. continues to lead in terms of overall lube demand, but we are contracting,” Morvey said. “There are still issues [with] trying to recover from recession, increasing the penetra- tion of synthetics, fewer miles driven and longer oil drain intervals. All of these things combined have resulted in shrink- ing of lube demand.”
The number two country market, China, consumes almost 20 percent of the world’s lubricants now, and is expected to take the top spot globally in the 2015 to 2016 time- frame. India is third with more than 5 per-cent of the global market. Russia passed Japan to become the fourth largest coun- try market, but each has less than 5 per- cent of the global total.
“In China, the government is trying to develop a consumption economy rather than an export economy,” Morvey pointed out. “People are still buying cars, they’re still driving. It’s the same with India.
Despite the misfiring of those two country markets, we still see fundamental drivers in place. Demand will resume growth over the forecast period, albeit at much lower growth rates than prior.”
Growth in South America, and in Africa and the Middle East is driven primarily by commodity exports to Asia and domestic consumption, he said. “The slowdown in China trickled down to country markets in South America and Africa-Middle East that were sending commodity exports to China. The fundamentals are in place there, albeit at lower growth rates.” In Europe, the lubricants markets of Eastern and Central Europe are key, he noted. “Growth in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Romania — countries like these will counter declines in Western Europe,” Morvey said. “Despite what’s happening in Italy, France, Spain and Greece,” he added, “we do see positive drivers in Eastern and Central Europe. Although like South America and Africa-Middle East, a lot of these country markets are exporting products into Western Europe, so if there’s a decline in Western Europe, it trickles back into Eastern and Central Europe.” Looking at how global demand breaks down by lubricant types, heavy-duty engine oils led with 23 per- cent of global lubricant demand in 2012, followed by pas- senger car motor oil at 18 percent.
“We do see oil drain intervals are increasing in certain country markets, regardless of usage levels,” Morvey said. “In the U.S., fleets for example are looking to opti- mize oil drain intervals to keep vehicles and equipment out on the roads rather than in the shop. In different country markets — depending on the level of sophistication, age of the fleet and best maintenance practices — they may not be following extended oil drain inter- vals.”
Kline, which is based in Parsippany, N.J., pegged global heavy-duty motor oil demand at 9 million metric tons in 2012, and expects it grow to 10.5 mil- lion metric tons by 2017. The most encouraging trend for HDMO, Morvey indicated, is the shift from monogrades to multigrades, and a gradual turning away from heavy-vis grades like 20/25Ws towards lighter 10W and even 5W weights. He noted that monograde demand in Africa-Middle East, South America and Asia-Pacific is expected to remain high over the forecast period until those regions replace older vehi- cles and adopt more effective preven- tive maintenance programs, all of which will enable longer oil drain intervals. Other automotive-related lubricants, such as automatic transmission fluid, automotive gear oil and tractor hydraulic fluid, account for another 12 percent of global demand.
On the industrial side, process oils (a category where Kline gathers products such as transformer oils, rubber oils, white oils and printing inks) led with 15 percent of total global lubricants demand in 2012.
Other key industrial products include hydraulic fluids at 9 percent, general industrial oils (such as industrial gear oils, turbine oils, compressor and refrig- eration fluids) with 8 percent, industrial engine oils at 7 percent, and metal-working fluids at 5 percent. Lubricating grease accounts for 3 percent of the global market.
Kline projects synthetic lubricants will grow at an annual rate of about 4.5 per- cent over the next 10 years, albeit from a small base.
Several factors are driving the increased use of synthetics, Morvey said. One is the expanding use of syn- thetics by original equipment manufac- turers for factory and service fill in con- sumer vehicles in North America. Examples include Toyota and Honda (which favors 0W-XX multigrades), GM (Dexos 5W-xx), Ford, Chrysler/Fiat and Subaru (which recommends both 5W and 0W multigrades).
In China, Kline says, semi-synthetic passenger car motor oil is finding increased acceptance in mid- and top- tier vehicles at acceptable prices. Mass- market OEMs, like Maruti-Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata, Ford and General Motors, are all progressing towards greater use of synthetic PCMO, via the marketing efforts of franchised dealers, leading multinational corporations, and recently Indian Oil Corp. Synthetics have become established in India’s pre- mium-class vehicle market, for OEM brands such as Skoda/Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, Audi and Volvo. Among industrial oils and fluids, Kline projects that demand for extend- ed oil drain intervals, lower operating temperatures, reduced downtime and efficiency improvements will drive the penetration of synthetic lubricants across all markets.
Morvey said the most promising industrial opportunities for synthetics include the power generation, trans- portation and food processing indus- tries, thanks to strong growth foreseen for these sectors. That includes synthet- ic gear oil and grease in wind turbines, synthetic turbine oil for aviation and power generation, synthetic natural gas engine oils, and compressor and refrig-eration fluids.
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