GTL Base Oils Remain Elusive

2013-05-28   来源：润滑油情报网 网友评论 0 条

Maybe it’s time to question whether lubricant blenders will ever get their hands on gas-to-liquids base oils.

   Several industry sources told Lubes’n’Greases in March that Shell still has not offered to sell base oils from the Pearl GTL plant, even after ramping up its second production train near the end of last year. These sources, who asked not to be identified, said the company has offered base stock blends of Pearl oils combined with Group I stocks, seemingly going out of its way to keep others from obtaining straight GTL oils.

   The Anglo-Dutch oil major declined to confirm or deny those accounts, offering only a general statement.

   “Shell is firstly focusing on consuming GTL base oils within our finished lubricants business,” a spokesman said.  

   “I think what we’re seeing is likely to be Shell’s strategy for the foreseeable future,” said R. David Whitby, director of Pathmaster Marketing consultancy of Woking, United Kingdom. “There is a very good chance that they will never make GTL base oils available on the open market.”

   That would disappoint lubricant blenders, who have waited a long time on the promise of GTL. In the early and mid-2000s, several companies announced plans to build GTL refineries, and most were to include base oil plants. Then, one by one, projects were cancelled until Pearl was the only one left. A joint venture between Shell   and Qatar Petroleum, it called for a refinery in Ras Laffan, Qatar, that would tap the country’s massive North Field gas reserve.

   In the summer of 2011, the first of two base oil production trains started up. When it became evident Shell was keeping the output in-house, analysts still offered hope. The company might be able to soak up 650,000 t/y of Group III oils, but they doubted that even the world’s largest lube supplier could use twice that volume without diluting its value. When the second train came online, many thought, GTL   base oils would come to market.

   So far, apparently not, even though the plant is running near full tilt. Shell said the two production trains were operating at 90 percent of combined capacity as this issue went to press.

   Blenders covet GTL base oils because of their combination of quality and cost structure. There is consensus that their performance approaches that of polyalphaolefins but that they cost significantly less to produce.

   Although it seems clear that Shell could find eager buyers for Pearl oils,     analysts say there are strategic reasons for the company not to sell them.

   “There are a number of reasons for this,” said one observer who spoke on condition of anonymity. “First, it provides Shell with a unique base oil and an advantage in supplying original equipment manufacturers and in trying to raise the bar on lubricant specifications. Second, GTL could be a killer for polyalphaolefin [base stocks] used in passenger car motor oils. Shell is the world’s largest producer of linear alpha olefins, the feedstock for PAO, and they would rather not see the bottom drop out of that market.”

   Shell appears to have been working hard to find applications for these oils. It recently developed electrical transformer oils made with GTL base oils and has introduced a line of GTL-based process oils.

   Not everyone is surprised by its actions. Whitby recalled predicting this outcome in a column that he wrote for   Lubes’n’Greases in March 2009.

   “It does not surprise me in the slightest because I forecast it four years ago,” he said. “It makes sense because these base oils give them a competitive advantage. They are not quite as good as PAO, but by supplementing with additives you can get PAO performance at a price that is significantly better.

   “Also, it’s more practical for a company to limit availability of GTL base oils than it would be with mineral base oils. Given the way a GTL plant operates, the feedstocks used for base oils can be diverted to wax or recycled into diesel.”

   Some observers still think Pearl base oils will eventually come to market. The anonymous analyst quoted above suggested Shell may use them internally until meeting growth targets for lubricant sales and then offer them for sale. Given the history of GTL, however, blenders should not hold their breath.